If you read the Orlando Sentinel today, you’ll see that they published an 8.9 percent decline in home prices according to research analytics firm Fiserv. This would put Orlando just outside the top five in major U.S. cities with regard to the falling home prices nationally. The question is how reliable is this information?
Fiserv is well known for its forecasting but not in a good way. For example, in 2011 Fiserv projected that the greater Orlando area would experience upwards of a 19 percent decline in home values. What actually happened is that home prices remained virtually the same which certainly caused alot of doubt in Fiserv’s abilities to forecast values.
Contrary to their current assessment, Fiserv also has recently predicted the recovery rates for U.S. metro areas through 2017. According to this 5 year window analysis, Orlando home prices are projected to gain 2.2 percent during that time. Nationally, home prices are projected to grow at an annualized rate of 3.3 percent from the third quarter of 2012 through the third quarter of 2017.
What does this mean for us, well it’s pretty simple. Home values aren’t making a drastic change anytime soon. What everyone needs to keep an eye on in my opinion are the interest rates. Typically you’ll see interest rates rise ahead of market conditions improving. This is a tried and true method for evaluating where the market is or where its going. With interest rates still at low levels, you can be rest assured that values are staying steady. If you’re thinking about buying, now is a great time. Most of the research and analysis points to a slow steady rise which begs the question, have we reached the bottom and if so should I buy now while deals are still being had. Ultimately, do your own research and determine if nows the time for you.
